{"id":2296,"date":"2019-11-03T15:50:01","date_gmt":"2019-11-03T07:50:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=2296"},"modified":"2019-10-30T16:29:29","modified_gmt":"2019-10-30T08:29:29","slug":"%e3%80%90%e6%96%87%e5%96%84%e5%b0%88%e8%bc%af%e3%80%91%e3%80%8a%e9%80%86%e5%90%91%e8%aa%98%e6%8b%90%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e5%9c%a8%e8%ad%89%e5%88%b8%e5%8c%96%e8%88%87%e5%8b%95%e5%93%a1%e5%8c%96%e7%9a%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=2296","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u6587\u5584\u5c08\u8f2f\u3011\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\uff1a\u5728\u8b49\u5238\u5316\u8207\u52d5\u54e1\u5316\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u72af\u7f6a\u662f\u4ef6\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4e8b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6587\u5584\u5c08\u8f2f\u5ba2\u5e2d\u7de8\u8f2f\uff0fFaker<\/p>\n

\u3010\u672c\u6587\u5167\u5bb9\u6d89\u53ca\u5c0f\u8aaa\u60c5\u7bc0\uff0c\u5f37\u70c8\u5efa\u8b70\u8b80\u8005\u5148\u8b80\u7562\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u5168\u66f8\u3011<\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

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\u8b93 A & B \u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u526f\u7e3d\u88c1\u7d04\u7ff0\u5927\u70ba\u7dca\u5f35\u7684\u4fdd\u5bc6\u8cc7\u6599\u7d81\u67b6\u6848\u5f97\u4ee5\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u51fa\u65bc\u4ed6\u6050\u61fc\u4e00\u65e6 CHOK \u7cfb\u7d71\u8a08\u5283\u62d6\u5ef6\u3001\u878d\u8cc7\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u4e8b\u88ab\u63d0\u65e9\u66dd\u5149\uff0c\u4fe1\u7528\u5371\u6a5f\u518d\u6b21\u767c\u751f\u3002A & B \u8207\u6606\u6069\u7279\u65af\u7684\u898f\u6a21\u975e\u5e38\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u8ddf\u6d77\u562f\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u540c\u6a23\u8106\u5f31\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u4f7f\u666e\u904d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c0d\u79d1\u7814\u8b49\u5238\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5168\u5931\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u9aa8\u724c\u9023\u9396\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u89f8\u767c\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300a\u9019\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u516b\u767e\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u53f2\u300b\uff08This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly<\/em>\uff0c2009\uff09\u4f5c\u8005\u840a\u8335\u54c8\u7279\uff08Carmen M. Reinhart\uff09\u8207\u7f85\u683c\u592b\uff08Kenneth S. Rogoff\uff09\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u91d1\u878d\u53f2\u4e4b\u4e2d\u666e\u904d\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c\u9019\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u75c7\u5019\u7fa4\u300d\uff08this-time-is-different syndrome\uff09\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u3001\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u4ee5\u81f3\u570b\u5bb6\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u5c08\u5bb6\u517c\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\uff0c\u90fd\u666e\u904d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7576\u524d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\u5df2\u7d93\u8ddf\u4ee5\u524d\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f80\u8861\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u662f\u5426\u9677\u5165\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u4e0d\u518d\u9069\u7528\uff0c\u5371\u6a5f\u4e0d\u6703\u518d\u767c\u751f\u3002\u9019\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u7406\u64da\u662f\u8a8d\u70ba\u7576\u524d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u5c55\u5230\u66f4\u6210\u719f\u7684\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u4f4e\uff08\u751a\u81f3\u7121\u9650\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\uff09\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5f37\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u81ea\u4ee5\u70ba\u6709\u7740\u6700\u7cbe\u7dfb\u3001\u767c\u9054\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u4ee5\u4f5c\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5c0d\u6c96\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u8fce\u4f86\u4e86\u6b21\u7d1a\u6309\u63ed\u5371\u6a5f\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u3002[1]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u89d2\u8272\u5c0d\u65bc\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u503c\u5f97\u7559\u610f\u7684\u7d30\u7bc0\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u6848\u4ef6\u544a\u4e00\u6bb5\u843d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7d04\u7ff0\u6700\u5f8c\u5e36\u9ede\u5f97\u610f\u5730\u5411\u5510\u8f14\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6709\u4eba\u8aaa\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u9280\u884c\u5927\u73ed\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c31\u662f\u8046\u807d\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u7684\u6b61\u6a02\u97f3\u6a02\u4f55\u6642\u6162\u3001\u4f55\u6642\u505c\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u300d\u800c\u827e\u84ee\u90a3\u53e5\uff1a\u300c\u4eba\u54ea\u2026\u2026\u662f\u5f9e\u4f86\u4e0d\u6703\u5f9e\u932f\u8aa4\u4e2d\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\uff0c\u4e00\u8cfa\u5230\u9322\uff0c\u4fbf\u81ea\u6211\u50ac\u7720\u8aaa\u9019\u548c\u90a3\u6642\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u3002\u300d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u5305\u62ec\u5979\u4e0a\u53f8\u7d04\u7ff0\u5728\u5167\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u9019\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u300d\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u6216\u4e00\u9805\u300c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u771f\u7684\u5177\u6709\u6f5b\u5728\u56de\u5831\u7684\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u5c64\u905e\u5f0f\u7684\u9f90\u6c0f\u9a19\u5c40\uff08\u4e0d\u65b7\u8209\u501f\u65b0\u50b5\u4ee5\u652f\u9084\u820a\u50b5\uff09\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u7dda\u4e4b\u5dee\u3002\u5728\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7b49\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u300c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u300d\u5f80\u5f80\u8981\u5f85\u5230\u7d50\u679c\u51fa\u4f86\u5f8c\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u56de\u6eaf\u6027\u5730\u5f97\u77e5\u8a08\u5283\u662f\u5c6c\u65bc\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\uff1a\u53ef\u4ee5\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u5be6\u73fe\u8207\u5275\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u50f9\u503c\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\uff1b\u5426\u5247\uff0c\u7576\u666e\u904d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u671f\u5f85\u843d\u7a7a\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u9677\u5165\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u5947\u5999\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u6578\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u91d1\u878d\u5bb6\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6703\u662f\u54ea\u4e00\u7a2e\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7576\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u9a19\u5c40\u5f9e\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u9a19\u5c40\u4e2d\u8cfa\u53d6\u597d\u8655\u3002\u300d\u610f\u5473\u5979\u5168\u76e4\u5426\u5b9a\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6b63\u7576\u6027\uff1b\u4f46\u672c\u66f8\u53e6\u4e00\u8655\u4ea6\u501f\u827e\u84ee\u7684\u53e3\u8aaa\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5177\u672c\u662f\u4e2d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u751a\u9ebc\u5143\u51f6\u4e0d\u5143\u51f6\u7684\uff0c\u300c\u53ea\u662f\u6709\u4eba\u7528\u932f\uff0c\u624d\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e00\u767c\u4e0d\u53ef\u6536\u62fe\u3002\u300d\u7121\u53ef\u7f6e\u7591\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u78ba\u5be6\u5f9e\u773e\u591a\u7f3a\u4e4f\u91d1\u878d\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8eab\u4e0a\u7372\u53d6\u66b4\u5229\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u6709\u610f\u70ba\u4e4b\u7684\u6b3a\u9a19\u8207\u643e\u53d6\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u52a0\u6279\u5224\u3001\u6a02\u89c0\u5730\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u4e9b\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u7f8e\u597d\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u800c\u7121\u610f\u5730\u5ffd\u8996\u7a2e\u7a2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u6240\u9810\u793a\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u8981\u6bd4\u8d64\u88f8\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a\u66f4\u70ba\u81f4\u547d\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u66f4\u5ee3\u3001\u66f4\u6df1\u3002[2]<\/sup><\/a> \u53ea\u8981\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u69cb\u8207\u6a02\u89c0\u601d\u60f3\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6T\u5e02\u9084\u662f\u6211\u5011\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u90fd\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u518d\u6b21\u8fce\u4f86\u707d\u96e3\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u7684\u540d\u5b57<\/strong>\uff0c<\/strong>K for Kinetics<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u91cd\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u52d5\u54e1\u3002\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u7591\u554f\uff1a\u4e00\u500b\u7a0b\u5f0f\uff08CHOK\uff09\u5c0d\u65bc\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1f[3]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u70ba\u6e9d\u901a\u8207\u4ea4\u6d41\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u901a\u8a0a\u79d1\u6280\u56fa\u7136\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u4e3b\u5c0e\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u601d\u60f3\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4eba\u5c0d\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\uff1f\u9019\u5927\u6982\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4e92\u70ba\u56e0\u679c\u7684\u8faf\u8b49\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u5f9e\u601d\u60f3\u7684\u4e00\u65b9\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u8edf\u3001\u786c\u4ef6\u53ea\u662f\u5f62\u65bc\u5916\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u662f\u63a8\u52d5\u5be6\u8e10\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u9996\u8981\u7684\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\uff0c\u800cT\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u8de8\u8d8a\u9019\u500b\u4ee5\u901a\u4fe1\u79d1\u6280\u5efa\u69cb\u51fa\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u865b\u64ec\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u8868\u73fe\u5728T\u5e02\u7db2\u6c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u300c\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8b49\u5238\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u6307\u7684\u662f\u767c\u884c\u5546\u767c\u51fa\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u6191\u8b49\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u8b49\u660e\u6301\u6709\u8005\u4eab\u6709\u7684\u67d0\u7a2e\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6b0a\u76ca\uff1b\u8b49\u5238\u5fc5\u7136\u8981\u4ee5\u6301\u6709\u8005\u5c0d\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u9810\u671f\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u9810\u671f\u7406\u6027\u4e5f\u597d\u3001\u4e0d\u7406\u6027\u4e5f\u7f77\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u80fd\u9054\u6210\u8cb7\u8ce3\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u6210\u7acb\u3002[4]<\/sup><\/a> \u5728\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u4e2d\u5404\u7a2e\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u4e00\u822c\u91d1\u878d\u696d\u4e2d\u6d41\u901a\u7684\u8b49\u5238\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5e7e\u4e4e\u53ea\u5b58\u5728\u65bc\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u7684\u52d5\u54e1\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u4e2d\u3002\u5f9e\u6027\u8cea\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684T\u5e02\u627e\u5230\u4e09\u7a2e\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\uff09\u662f\u300c\u4e00\u5927\u73ed\u7db2\u6c11\u4ed8\u4e00\u9ede\u7121\u95dc\u75db\u7662\u7684\u91d1\u984d\u53bb\u505a\u6216\u770b\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u300d\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4f7f\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8005\u7372\u5f97\u6a02\u8da3\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u947d\u77f3\u8b49\u5238\uff09\u5247\u80fd\u70ba\u6301\u6709\u8005\u9054\u5230\u8ca1\u5bcc\u589e\u503c\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u7a2e\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8072\u63f4\u8b49\u5238\uff09\u5247\u517c\u5177\u524d\u5169\u7a2e\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u3002[5]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

\u8981\u9810\u65e9\u4ed8\u51fa\u771f\u91d1\u767d\u9280\u8cfc\u8cb7\u6c92\u6709\u64d4\u4fdd\u7269\u7684\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5927\u6982\u5f88\u96e3\u60f3\u50cf\u3002\u70ba\u4f55\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u80fd\u5728T\u5e02\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u666e\u53ca\u8d77\u4f86\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff1a\u7121\u804a\u3002\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u5168\u66f8\u958b\u9996\u3008\u7b2c0\u7ae0\u3009\u4e2d\u53c3\u8207\u8072\u63f4\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u5927\u5b78\u751f crazygroove\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u88ab\u554f\u5230\u70ba\u4f55\u6703\u8cfc\u8cb7\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\u6642\uff0c\u5831\u4ee5\u300c\u81ea\u5df1\u7121\u804a\u6c92\u4e8b\u505a\uff0c\u624b\u982d\u53c8\u6709\u9019\u500b\u9322\u300d\u3001\u300c\u770b\u4f86\u597d\u50cf\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u300d\u70ba\u7b54\u6848\u7684 CHOK \u7528\u6236\uff0c\u90fd\u7a81\u986f\u51fa\u4ed6\u5011\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u82e6\u60b6\uff0c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u5728\u73fe\u5be6\u9084\u662f\u5728\u865b\u64ec\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b63\u662f\u9019\u7a2e\u82e6\u60b6\u611f\uff0c\u8b93T\u5e02\u6709\u4e86\u8b93\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u8207 CHOK \u5f97\u4ee5\u666e\u53ca\u7684\u571f\u58de\u3002\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f K Kinapper\u3001K Points \u9084\u662f CHOK\uff0c\u300cK\u300d\u90fd\u662f\u672c\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\uff0c\u5b83\u6307\u7684\u662f\u52d5\u529b\uff08kinetics\uff09\u3002\u52d5\u529b\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6d88\u9664\u82e6\u60b6\uff0cCHOK \u8981\u6c42\u7528\u6236\u591a\u53c3\u8207\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u800c\u8a55\u5206\u3001\u8f49\u767c\u5167\u5bb9\u7b49\u884c\u70ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u63db\u53d6\u80fd\u5be6\u969b\u7576\u4f5c\u4ea4\u6613\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684 K Points\uff0c\u9019\u7d93\u6fdf\u8a98\u56e0\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u9f13\u52f5\u7528\u6236\u66f4\u591a\u53c3\u8207\u5404\u7a2e\u6d3b\u52d5\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u4f5c\u70ba\u5916\u5728\u79d1\u6280\u7684 CHOK \u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u5f71\u97ff\u7528\u6236\uff0c\u6df1\u5316\u4ed6\u3943\u672c\u4f86\u5df2\u7d93\u63a5\u53d7\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u5f37\u8abf\u7684\u300c\u52d5\u54e1\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u7a2e\u52d5\u529b\u767c\u63ee\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4e2d\u7684\u8edf\u4ef6\u958b\u767c\u8005\u9054\u7d20\uff0c\u537b\u7a31\u5e74\u8f15\u7684 CHOK \u958b\u767c\u5718\u968a\u4ee5\u81f3 CHOK \u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u7528\u6236\u70ba\u4e00\u5ea7\u300c\u6838\u96fb\u5ee0\u300d\uff0c\u96a8\u6642\u6703\u7206\u767c\u3002\u4ed6\u6182\u616e\u300c\u7576\u8981\u52d5\u54e1\u90a3\u9ebc\u5927\u6578\u91cf\u7684\u4eba\u6642\uff0c\u4f60\u6c38\u9060\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u9810\u8a08\u5230\u4e8b\u60c5\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u8ddf\u7740\u4f60\u5e0c\u671b\u7684\u65b9\u5411\u8d70\u3002\u300d\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u7121\u7591\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u8eab\u8655\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u96a8\u6ce2\u9010\u6d41\u7684\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e0d\u52a0\u601d\u8003\u8207\u6279\u5224\u5c31\u5148\u4ed8\u8af8\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u6545\u4e8b\u5f8c\u6bb5\u4e00\u6b21\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u52d5\u54e1\uff1a\u53ec\u96c6\u5927\u6279\u7db2\u6c11\u982d\u6234\u767d\u5e3d\u3001\u624b\u6301\u7d05\u8272\u79ae\u7269\u888b\uff0c\u5230\u5546\u5834\u96c6\u5408\u3002\u9019\u6b21\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u53ec\u96c6\u7d14\u7cb9\u51fa\u65bc\u6a02\u8da3\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u6c92\u6709\u5be6\u8cea\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u5b83\u672c\u8eab\u4ea6\u6beb\u7121\u610f\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\u65b0\u4e16\u4ee3\u7684\u6109\u5feb\u72af<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u6545\u4e8b\u7d50\u5c40\u5728\u5411\u8b80\u8005\u4ea4\u5f85\u4f5c\u70ba\u72af\u4eba\u7684\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u7684 Howdunit \u8207 Whydunit\uff0c\u7576\u690d\u5d9d\u4ec1\u63a8\u7406\u51fa\u5979\u7684\u6240\u6709\u624b\u6bb5\u8207\u72af\u6848\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u552f\u4e00\u4e0d\u61c2\u7684\u662f\u5979\u7684\u72af\u6848\u52d5\u6a5f\uff0c\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u8010\u4eba\u5c0b\u5473\u5730\u56de\u7b54\uff1a\u300c\u4e0d\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u597d\u50cf\u5f88\u6709\u8da3\u554a\u3002\u300d\u6191\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u6700\u5f8c\u9019\u53e5\u5c0d\u767d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7576\u7136\u53ef\u4ee5\u8996\u5979\u70ba\u6a19\u6e96\u7684\u6109\u5feb\u72af\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee5\u300c\u597d\u73a9\u300d\u70ba\u72af\u6848\u52d5\u6a5f\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u8b93\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u5728\u8b80\u8005\u8207\u8a55\u8ad6\u4e4b\u9593\u60f9\u8d77\u9817\u5927\u7684\u722d\u8b70\u3002\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u9019\u53e5\u8a71\u770b\u4f3c\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u9053\u51fa\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u7cbe\u7dfb\u7684\u6a02\u8da3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\u9996\u5148\u6211\u5011\u8981\u554f\uff1a\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u4e0d\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u9322\u800c\u72af\u6848\u55ce\uff1f\u5979\u5f9e\u690d\u5bb6\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u50f9\u503c\u4e0d\u83f2\u7684\u947d\u77f3\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d81\u67b6\u72af\uff0c\u5979\u5927\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u6b78\u9084\u947d\u77f3\u8b49\u5238\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8005\u61c9\u5f97\u7684\u947d\u77f3\uff0c\u9060\u8d70\u9ad8\u98db\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\u5979\u5c07\u6240\u6709\u947d\u77f3\u90fd\u5bc4\u51fa\u53bb\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u7d66\u8cb7\u4e86\u5979\u7684\u947d\u77f3\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u56de\u5831\u3002\u7576\u7136\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u6d17\u9ed1\u9322\uff0c\u5c07\u4f5c\u70ba\u8d13\u7269\u7684\u90a3\u6279\u5e36\u7740\u9ad8\u8fa8\u8b58\u5ea6\u7684\u947d\u77f3\uff0c\u4ee5\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u65b9\u4fbf\u5730\u63db\u6210\u73fe\u91d1\uff1b\u5979\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u51fa\u65bc\u8981\u5c65\u884c\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u5951\u7d04\u7cbe\u795e\uff0c\u8a31\u8afe\u7d66\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8005\u7684\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u8981\u5b88\u4fe1\u5949\u9084\u3002\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u51fa\u65bc\u54ea\u500b\u52d5\u6a5f\uff0c\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u90fd\u4e26\u975e\u52ab\u5bcc\u6fdf\u8ca7\u7684\u4fe0\u76dc\uff0c\u4ea6\u975e\u4e0d\u98df\u4eba\u9593\u7159\u706b\u7684\u904a\u6232\u8005\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4ee5\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u7684\u8070\u660e\u624d\u667a\uff0c\u8981\u7372\u5f97\u91d1\u9322\uff0c\u72af\u6848\u624b\u6cd5\u6709\u5343\u767e\u7a2e\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u5927\u8cbb\u5468\u7ae0\u8a08\u5283\u8207\u5be6\u884c\u5982\u6b64\u8907\u96dc\u3001\u727d\u9023\u751a\u5ee3\u7684\u7d81\u67b6\u8a08\u5283\uff1f\u66f4\u9000\u4e00\u6b65\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u5df2\u7d93\u8eab\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u83c1\u82f1\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5979\u52aa\u529b\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u722d\u53d6\u5347\u8077\u8207\u5206\u7d05\u5c31\u8db3\u4ee5\u98db\u9ec3\u9a30\u9054\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u7528\u524d\u9014\u4f5c\u8ced\u6ce8\uff0c\u4ee5\u8eab\u72af\u96aa\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u59a8\u5728\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u70ba\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u5340\u5206\u51fa\u4e09\u7a2e\u6b32\u671b\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u52d9\u5be6\u3001\u91cd\u8996\u7269\u8cea\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u8207\u57fa\u91d1\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u4e16\u754c\uff08\u4ee5\u7d04\u7ff0\u3001\u7267\u91ce\u8207\u6717\u5974\u70ba\u4ee3\u8868\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u91cd\u8996\u7684\u662f\u5c0d\u7372\u5229\u7684\u8caa\u5a6a\u8207\u5c0d\u8667\u640d\u7684\u6050\u61fc\uff0c\u51fa\u65bc\u9019\u7a2e\u6b32\u671b\u7684\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u7a2e\u7a2e\u8861\u91cf\u904e\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u6f5b\u5728\u56de\u5831\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7406\u6027\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\u770b\u91cd\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u5229\u76ca\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u6a02\u8da3\u800c\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u8005\u3001\u88ab\u52d5\u54e1\u7684\u7db2\u6c11\u7684\u6b32\u671b\u5747\u5728\u6b64\u5217\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e09\u5c31\u662f\u5510\u8f14\u8207\u690d\u5d9d\u4ec1\u5169\u4f4d\u5075\u63a2\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6b32\u671b\u7684\u662f\u627e\u5c0b\u6848\u4ef6\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u771f\u76f8\u3002\u5916\u8868\u53ef\u611b\u55ae\u7d14\u3001\u9aa8\u5b50\u88e1\u51b0\u51b7\u9ad8\u50b2\u7684\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\uff0c\u4e26\u672a\u8a8d\u540c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u7a2e\u6b32\u671b\uff0c\u66f4\u5728\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u9119\u8996\u7740\u5b83\u5011\uff1b\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u5979\u6240\u505a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u628a\u73a9\u8207\u64cd\u7e31\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e09\u7a2e\u6b32\u671b\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f97\u4ee5\u7cbe\u6e96\u9810\u6e2c\u9019\u4e09\u7a2e\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5b8c\u6210\u6bcf\u500b\u7d30\u7bc0\u90fd\u7dca\u7dca\u6263\u9023\u7684\u7d81\u67b6\u8a08\u5283\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u65bc\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\uff0c\u72af\u6848\u7684\u6a02\u8da3\u5728\u65bc\u5979\u8eab\u8655\u5e55\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u5404\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u7b56\u5283\u5404\u7a2e\u5177\u8352\u8a95\u610f\u5473\u7684\u5834\u9762\uff1b\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5979\u4e00\u76f4\u5c31\u8eab\u8655\u72af\u6848\u73fe\u5834\uff0c\u8207\u5075\u63a2\u8207\u8089\u7968\u5171\u8655\u4e00\u5ba4\uff0c\u627f\u53d7\u7740\u8a08\u5283\u6557\u9732\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u4f46\u5979\u537b\u4eab\u53d7\u7576\u4e2d\u7684\u7121\u6bd4\u6a02\u8da3\u3002\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u7684\u6574\u500b\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u4f5c\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u5982\u4f55\u5be6\u8e10\u300cCHOK\u300d\u2500\u2500Continuous Harmonization of Kinetics\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u52d5\u529b\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u8abf\u548c\u5316\u2500\u2500\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u5979\u5c31\u662f\u6191\u7740\u64cd\u63a7\u8207\u8abf\u548c\u5404\u7a2e\u6b32\u671b\u8207\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u591a\u6b21\u4ee5\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u70ba\u540d\u7684\u52d5\u54e1\uff1a\u4e00\u7fa4\u4e92\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u56e0\u5229\u76ca\u8207\u6a02\u8da3\u800c\u6295\u6ce8\u4fe1\u4efb\u3001\u6642\u9593\u3001\u91d1\u9322\u8207\u52de\u529b\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u4efb\u4f55\u6307\u793a\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u5834\u6697\u6230\u4e0d\u81f3\u65bc\u5f15\u767c\u793e\u6703\u6050\u614c\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u8db3\u4ee5\u8b49\u660e\u52d5\u54e1\u793e\u6703\u662f\u591a\u5bb9\u6613\u8fa6\u5230\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u540c\u6a23\u51fa\u65bc\u6a02\u8da3\uff0c\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u7684\u6eff\u8db3\u65b9\u5f0f\u8207\u5c64\u6b21\uff0c\u90fd\u8ddf\u56e0\u82e6\u60b6\u800c\u88ab\u52d5\u54e1\u7684\u7db2\u6c11\u76f8\u8ddd\u751a\u9060\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u96fb\u5f71\u7248\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u4e2d\u7684\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u8a8d\u70ba\u52d5\u54e1\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u793e\u6703\u4e26\u4f7f\u4e4b\u5411\u5584\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6a02\u89c0\u53d6\u5411\u53ef\u8b02\u8ddf\u539f\u8457\u5c0f\u8aaa\u5357\u8f45\u5317\u8f4d\uff1b\u96fb\u5f71\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u4fee\u6539\u4e86\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u7684 Whydunit \u5f8c\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u4f7f\u539f\u8457\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u89c0\u5d29\u584c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8a9e\uff1a\u5c0d\u79d1\u6280\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5169\u7a2e\u6182\u616e<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u9019\u9ebc\u8070\u660e\u8207\u5927\u81bd\u7684\u7f6a\u72af\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u79d1\u7814\u8b49\u5238\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u5404\u7a2e\u60e1\u4f5c\u5287\u8b49\u5238\uff0c\u6c92\u6709 CHOK \u624b\u6a5f\u8207\u8edf\u4ef6\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0cT\u5e02\u4ecd\u7136\u8ddf\u6211\u5011\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u8db3\u5920\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002\u7e3d\u62ec\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u8868\u73fe\u51fa\u4e86\u5169\u7a2e\u6182\u616e\uff1a\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u6ce1\u6cab\u6050\u6015\u53ea\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u4ee5\u9003\u904e\u4e00\u3001\u5169\u6b21\u5371\u6a5f\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e00\u5929\u7e3d\u6703\u518d\u5ea6\u964d\u81e8\uff1b\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\u65b0\u8208\u7684\u4ee5\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u6a5f\u5236\u70ba\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u7db2\u7d61\u751f\u614b\uff0c\u6216\u5c07\u9677\u5165\u5931\u63a7\u6216\u88ab\u4e0d\u8ecc\u610f\u5716\u64cd\u7e31\u7684\u5c40\u9762\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300a\u9006\u5411\u8a98\u62d0\u300b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7cbe\u5999\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u662f\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u800c\u97ff\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8b66\u865f\uff1a\u5371\u96aa\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6216\u591a\u5c11\u500b\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u822c\u7684\u667a\u6167\u6027\u7f6a\u72af\uff1b\u5371\u96aa\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8b93\u77f3\u5c0f\u5112\u6848\u5f97\u4ee5\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6ce8\u91cb<\/strong><\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> \u840a\u8335\u54c8\u7279\uff08Carmen M. Reinhart\uff09\u3001\u7f85\u683c\u592b\uff08Kenneth S. Rogoff\uff09\u8457\uff0c\u5289\u9053\u6377\u3001\u9673\u65ed\u83ef\u8b6f\uff0c\u300a\u9019\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff1a\u516b\u767e\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u53f2\u300b\uff08This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly<\/em>\uff09\uff0c\u65b0\u5317\u5e02\uff1a\u5927\u724c\u51fa\u7248\uff0c2015\u5e74\u3002<\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> \u57282007\u5e74\u6b21\u6309\u5371\u6a5f\u7206\u767c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u986f\u793a\u51fa\u7684\u6578\u64da\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u660e\u986f\u4e0a\u6f32\u3001\u5be6\u8cea\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u653e\u6162\u3001\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u7d93\u5e38\u5e33\u8d64\u5b57\u8207\u50b5\u52d9\u6301\u7e8c\u589e\u52a0\uff08\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u516c\u5171\u50b5\u52d9\u3001\u6c11\u9593\u50b5\u52d9\u6216\u50b5\u52d9\u7e3d\u984d\uff09\u3002\u53c3\u8003\u300a\u9019\u6b21\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u300b\u3008\u7b2c\u5341\u4e09\u7ae0 \u7f8e\u570b\u6b21\u8cb8\u98a8\u66b4\uff1a\u5f9e\u570b\u969b\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u89d2\u5ea6\u5206\u6790\u3009\u3002<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a>\u5f9e\u6545\u4e8b\u8a2d\u5b9a\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6606\u6069\u7279\u65af\u7684\u786c\u4ef6\u8207\u592b\u8def\u8332\u8edf\u4ef6\u7684\u914d\u5408\uff0c\u53ef\u8b02\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u6700\u5f37\u5169\u9593\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u7d44\u5408\uff1a\u5c0f\u8aaa\u4f9d\u64da\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7c97\u7565\u5c0d\u61c9\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u7684 Facebook\uff0c\u5b83\u6536\u8cfc\u4e86 Apple\uff08\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u5317\u7f8e\u624b\u6a5f\u5ee0\u5546\u592b\u8def\u8332\uff0c\u8a72\u662f\u300cFruit\u300d\u7684\u8b6f\u97f3\uff0c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u4e09\u5927\u624b\u6a5f\u5ee0\u5546\u4e4b\u4e00\uff09\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684 CHOK\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u70ba\u4e00\u6b3e\u914d\u5099\u4e86\u985e\u8fd1 Libra \u865b\u64ec\u8ca8\u5e63\uff08\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684 K points\uff09\u8207 Apple Pay \u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u7368\u4f54 Facebook\uff08\u5373 CHOK\uff09\u7684 Apple\uff08\u592b\u8def\u8332\uff09\u624b\u6a5f\u3002CHOK \u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u904b\u4f5c\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u985e\u6bd4\u300a\u9ed1\u93e1\u300b\uff08Black Mirror<\/em>\uff09\u3008\u6025\u8f49\u76f4\u4e0b\u3009\uff08Nosedive\uff09\u4e00\u96c6\u4e2d\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u8a55\u7d1a\u5e73\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> \u6211\u5011\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u8b49\u5238\uff08securities\uff09\u8ddf\u80a1\u7968\uff08stock\uff09\u7684\u5206\u5225\uff1a\u4ee3\u8868\u5c0d\u67d0\u4e00\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u80a1\u6b0a\u6301\u4efd\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u773e\u591a\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7a2e\uff1b\u8b49\u5238\u7684\u7a2e\u985e\u773e\u591a\uff0c\u5f9e\u77f3\u6cb9\u8207\u5927\u8c46\u7b49\u5be6\u7269\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u5230\u5916\u532f\u3001\u80a1\u7968\u7b49\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u81f3\u5229\u7387\u8207\u5404\u7a2e\u7d9c\u5408\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7576\u4f5c\u8b49\u5238\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3002<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e09\u7a2e\u7968\u5238\u7686\u4ee5\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u70ba\u540d\uff0c\u4f46\u82e5\u8981\u5439\u6bdb\u6c42\u75b5\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u9019\u4e9b\u300c\u8b49\u5238\u300d\u53ea\u7531\u767c\u884c\u8005\u55ae\u65b9\u5411\u51fa\u552e\u7d66\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u6301\u6709\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u982d\u6cbd\u51fa\u7d66\u767c\u884c\u8005\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u8f49\u8ce3\u7684\u4e8c\u624b\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u7b26\u5408\u8b49\u5238\u5177\u6709\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u8207\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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