{"id":2202,"date":"2019-08-04T16:37:53","date_gmt":"2019-08-04T08:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=2202"},"modified":"2019-08-08T14:34:19","modified_gmt":"2019-08-08T06:34:19","slug":"%e6%b0%91%e4%b8%bb%e6%8f%90%e4%be%9b%e9%81%b8%e6%93%87%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%bb%e6%ac%8a%e6%ad%b8%e6%96%bc%e4%ba%ba%e6%b0%91%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e8%ae%80%e3%80%8a%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%89%e6%b3%a2%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=2202","title":{"rendered":"\u6c11\u4e3b\u63d0\u4f9b\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u4e3b\u6b0a\u6b78\u65bc\u4eba\u6c11\u2500\u2500\u8b80\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\uff1a\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u300b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>* <\/strong><strong>\u6587\u7ae0\u984c\u76ee\u70ba\u7de8\u8f2f\u6240\u64ec<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u53ef\u6eaf\u81ea\u53e4\u5e0c\u81d8\uff0c\u7136\u73fe\u4ee3\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u6982\u5ff5\u5247\u662f\u8a95\u751f\u65bc\u5341\u516b\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u5b9a\u7fa9\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u6216\u53ef\u901a\u904e\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u76ee\u7684\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u6c11\u4e3b\u61c9\u5305\u542b\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u5e73\u7b49\u3001\u535a\u611b\uff09\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7522\u751f\u6a21\u7cca\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6545\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u9032\u8def\u4ee5\u300c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u300d\u4f5c\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5224\u6e96\uff0c\u5373\uff1a\u300c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\u662f\u88ab\u7d71\u6cbb\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u7d93\u7531\u7af6\u722d\u6027\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4f86\u6311\u9078\u9818\u8896\u3002\u300d\u9019\u662f\u718a\u5f7c\u5f97\uff08Joseph Schumpeter\uff09\u5f0f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u7c21\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u653f\u9ad4\u4e2d\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u8005\u662f\u5426\u7d93\u7531\u81ea\u7531\u7af6\u722d\u4e14\u70ba\u516c\u5e73\u3001\u516c\u6b63\u3001\u5b9a\u671f\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7522\u751f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u5305\u542b\u7af6\u722d\uff08contestation\uff09\u548c\u53c3\u8207\uff08participation\uff09\u5169\u500b\u9762\u5411\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u5206\u6790\u4e0a\u6e05\u6670\u4e4b\u512a\u9ede\u3002\u7136\u61c9\u5207\u8a18\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5f62\u5f0f\u7684\u9078\u8209\u50c5\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u300c\u5fc5\u8981\u689d\u4ef6\u300d\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u6545\u4f9d\u6b64\u65b9\u5f0f\u9078\u8209\u7522\u751f\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u8150\u6557\u3001\u88ab\u7279\u6b8a\u5229\u76ca\u6240\u64cd\u7e31\u6216\u7121\u6cd5\u63a1\u7d0d\u516c\u76ca\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u662f\u900f\u904e\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6b0a\u529b\u8005\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\u3002<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6c11\u4e3b\u662f\u516c\u5171\u7f8e\u5fb7\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u7f8e\u5fb7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u585e\u7e46\u723e\uff0e\u676d\u5ef7\u9813 \uff08Samuel P. Huntington\uff09\u6240\u8457\u7684\u300a\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\uff1a20\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\u300b\uff08<em>The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century<\/em>\uff09\u6240\u95dc\u6ce8\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u6c11\u4e3b\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u300c<wbr \/>\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u300d\u9019\u4e00\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u9032\u7a0b\u3002\u9019\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u5373\u70ba\u4ee5\u524d\u8ff0\u6b63\u7576\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u53d6\u4ee3\u975e\u4ee5\u6b63\u7576\u7a0b\u5e8f\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4f5c\u8005\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff08\u62ec\u865f\u70ba\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u6578\u76ee\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u6210\u6642\u671f\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff1a1828\u20131926\uff0833\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u6ce2\u56de\u6f6e\uff1a1922\u20131942\uff0811\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff1a1943\u20131962\uff0851\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u56de\u6f6e\uff1a1958\u20131975\uff0829\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\uff1a1974\u2013\uff0862\uff0c\u9810\u4f30\u56de\u6f6e\u5c07\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e09\u500b\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\uff09<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u4ee5\u4eca\u65e5\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4f9d\u7167\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4eba\u7684\u300c\u6c11\u4e3b\u7d22\u5f152017\u300d\uff0c\u6709\u4e03\u5341\u516d\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u5c6c\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5b8c\u5168\u6c11\u4e3b\u8207\u7455\u75b5\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a> \u5c0d\u7167\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u2500\u2500\u5373\u8457\u4f5c\u5b8c\u6210\u4e4b\u6642\u2500\u2500\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u9810\u8a08\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u5730\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u76f8\u8f03\u65bc\u524d\u5169\u6ce2\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4e2d\u7d04\u83ab\u534a\u6578\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u9006\u6d41\u5411\u5a01\u6b0a\u653f\u6b0a\uff08authoritarian regime\uff09<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a>\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u5c0d\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u76f8\u7576\u80fd\u8aaa\u660e\u4eca\u65e5\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u73fe\u6cc1\uff08\u4e14\u4e0d\u6e1b\u53cd\u589e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4ee5\u6d6a\u6f6e\uff08wave\uff09\u4f86\u5f62\u5bb9\u653f\u6b0a\u8f49\u5316\u662f\u8cbc\u5207\u7684\u3002\u84cb\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u65e2\u662f\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u50c5\u53ea\u524d\u9032\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5c31\u50cf\u6d6a\u6f6e\u4ea6\u6f32\u4ea6\u9000\u3002\u53c3\u7167\u4e03\u3001\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u4fc3\u9032\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u63d0\u5347\uff08\u8b58\u5b57\u7387\u3001\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u90fd\u5e02\u5316\u7684\u666e\u904d\u3001\u4e2d\u7522\u968e\u7d1a\u64f4\u5927\u3001\u6c11\u4e3b\u614b\u5ea6\u6210\u9577\uff09\u3001\u5929\u4e3b\u6559\u6703\u9818\u5c0e\u53cd\u5c0d\u5a01\u6b0a\u3001\u6b50\u6d32\u5171\u540c\u9ad4\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u8607\u806f\u5728\u516b\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u8b8a\u70ba\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3001\u56e0\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u6216\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u7b49\u570b\u5bb6\u51fa\u73fe\u6c11\u4e3b\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6efe\u96ea\u7403\u6548\u61c9\uff1b\u76f8\u5c0d\u5730\uff0c\u53c3\u7167\u904e\u5f80\u7d93\u9a57\u53ef\u77e5\u9020\u6210\u56de\u6f6e\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u6709\uff1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u50f9\u503c\u89c0\u5ff5\u8584\u5f31\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u4f7f\u793e\u6703\u885d\u7a81\u60e1\u5316\u800c\u4f7f\u4eba\u5011\u50be\u5411\u5a01\u6b0a\u5f0f\u5f37\u5236\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\u3001\u64cd\u4e4b\u904e\u6025\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\u9020\u6210\u5169\u6975\u5316\u3001\u4fdd\u5b88\u4efd\u5b50\u6c7a\u610f\u628a\u7fa4\u773e\u6216\u5de6\u7ffc\u6216\u4e0b\u5c64\u5718\u9ad4\u6392\u9664\u65bc\u6b0a\u529b\u5916\u3001\u6050\u6016\u7d71\u6cbb\u6216\u53db\u4e82\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u6216\u6cd5\u5f8b\u5d29\u6f70\u3001\u975e\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u5916\u570b\u4e4b\u5e72\u9810\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5d29\u6f70\u7684\u6efe\u96ea\u7403\u6548\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u57df\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u6f32\u6216\u9000\u6f6e\u9664\u4e86\u4e00\u822c\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5730\u5340\u7684\u7279\u6b8a\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5c31\u6b64\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u82e5\u9664\u53bb\u5916\u90e8\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u5982\u5916\u570b\u58d3\u529b\u6216\u6efe\u96ea\u7403\u6548\u61c9\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u7522\u751f\u4e3b\u8981\u5f71\u97ff\u8005\u6709\u4e8c\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u5c0e\u3002\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u672a\u5fc5\u6703\u7522\u751f\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f49\u5411\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u537b\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u9ad8\u5ea6\u95dc\u806f\u3002\u793e\u6703\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u8207\u83c1\u82f1\u5c0d\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u8896\u4e4b\u884c\u52d5\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u5be6\u73fe\u7684\u95dc\u9375\uff0c\u6b63\u5982\u66f8\u4eba\u63d0\u5230\uff1a\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u4f7f\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u6210\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\uff1b\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u5c0e\u4f7f\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u6210\u70ba\u771f\u5be6\u3002\u300d\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f46\u6d6a\u6f6e\u7121\u6cd5\u78ba\u4fdd\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\uff0c\u6d6a\u6f6e\u70ba\u8087\u56e0\uff08causes\uff09\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5f97\u4ee5\u51fa\u73fe\u6709\u8cf4\u65bc\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u8896\u8207\u4eba\u6c11\u4f5c\u70ba\u8087\u7aef\uff08causers\uff09\u4e4b\u884c\u52d5\uff0c\u4e3b\u9ad4\u884c\u52d5\u4e4b\u5be6\u8e10\u624d\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6b0a\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u662f\u59a5\u5354\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u3002\u5354\u5546\u6216\u662f\u516c\u958b\u6216\u662f\u79c1\u4e0b\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7bc4\u570d\u7686\u53ef\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u4f7f\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u6216\u5718\u9ad4\u5f97\u4ee5\u7af6\u9010\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u4e26\u4f9d\u64da\u516c\u958b\u5354\u8b70\u6216\u9ed8\u5951\u7372\u5f97\u6b0a\u529b\uff08\u4e14\u540c\u610f\u63a1\u53d6\u6e29\u548c\u7acb\u5834\uff09\u3002\u5728\u53c3\u8207\u53ca\u7bc0\u5236\u9593\u5f62\u6210\u4e4b\u6c11\u4e3b\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u5f97\u4ee5\u514b\u5236\uff0c\u653e\u68c4\u66b4\u529b\u6216\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u800c\u63a5\u53d7\u73fe\u884c\u793e\u6703\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5236\u5ea6\uff08\u79c1\u6709\u8ca1\u7522\u5236\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u6a5f\u5236\u3001\u8ecd\u65b9\u81ea\u4e3b\u6b0a\u6216\u6559\u6703\u7279\u6b0a\u7b49\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u900f\u904e\u9078\u8209\u6216\u8b70\u6703\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u8207\u5be6\u8e10\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u82e5\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u662f\u7531\u539f\u5148\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u9ad4\u5236\u8d70\u5411\u6b63\u7576\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7522\u751f\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\uff0c\u5247\u539f\u5148\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u4f55\u4ee5\u9858\u610f\u653e\u68c4\u5229\u76ca\u58df\u65b7\u800c\u8f49\u5411\uff1f\u52d5\u6a5f\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u6216\u56e0\u5176\u7b49\u76f8\u4fe1\u6c11\u4e3b\uff0c\u6216\u5c07\u6c11\u4e3b\u7576\u4f5c\u5be6\u73fe\u5176\u4ed6\u76ee\u6a19\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u8996\u5b83\u70ba\u9644\u5e36\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u4ee3\u50f9\uff08\u6240\u4ee5\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6216\u8a31\u4e0d\u662f\u9818\u8896\u539f\u5148\u6240\u9858\u4fc3\u6210\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u610f\u5916\u5f97\u4f86\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u4e0d\u53ef\uff09\u3002\u5c31\u5f8c\u8005\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9700\u8981\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u7576\u6027\uff0c\u56de\u61c9\u570b\u969b\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u7372\u5f97\u570b\u969b\u5c0a\u91cd\uff0c\u53c8\u6216\u8005\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u9078\u8209\u98a8\u96aa\uff08\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u7372\u52dd\uff0c\u56e0\u5176\u63a7\u5236\u7740\u653f\u5e9c\u3001\u8cc7\u6e90\u7d44\u7e54\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u9078\u8209\uff09\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\"><sup>[3]<\/sup><\/a> \u56fa\u7136\uff0c\u53cd\u5c0d\u52e2\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u5229\u76ca\u500b\u5225\uff0c\u60df\u82e5\u96c6\u7d50\u537b\u8db3\u4ee5\u64ca\u6557\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u3002\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u7206\u51b7\u9580\u5f0f\u7684\u9078\u8209\u7d50\u679c\u4e26\u4e0d\u5c11\u898b\uff0c\u4fc3\u6210\u4e0d\u5c11\u570b\u5bb6\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u821e\u5f0a\uff0c\u60df\u904e\u5ea6\u7316\u72c2\u7684\u505a\u7968\u5c07\u4f7f\u9078\u8209\u76ee\u7684\uff08\u6062\u5fa9\u6b63\u7576\u6027\uff09\u51fa\u73fe\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u5916\u570b\u89c0\u5bdf\u5bb6\u5c0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6703\u76e3\u7763\u9078\u8209\u516c\u6b63\u6027\uff1b\u82e5\u62d2\u7d55\u5176\u76e3\u7763\uff0c\u9078\u8209\u6703\u56e0\u800c\u524a\u5f31\u6b63\u7576\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5a01\u6b0a\u61f7\u820a\u75c7\u8207\u4e8c\u6b21\u8f2a\u66ff\u8003\u9a57<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u6c11\u4e3b\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u5c07\u4f7f\u904e\u5f80\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u79e9\u5e8f\u8207\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u540d\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u9ad4\u5236\u6e1b\u58d3\uff0c\u7136\u6216\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0d\u9069\u61c9\u5931\u53bb\u539f\u5148\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u611f\u89ba\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u300c\u5a01\u6b0a\u61f7\u820a\u75c7\u300d\uff08authoritarian nostalgia\uff09\uff0c\u5c24\u898b\u65bc\u904e\u5f80\u5a01\u6b0a\u58d3\u8feb\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u8f15\u5fae\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u6709\u6240\u6210\u5c31\u6216\u9818\u8896\u5e7e\u8fd1\u81ea\u767c\u5730\u63a8\u52d5\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u5c0d\u4f5b\u6717\u54e5\u3001\u7955\u9b6f\u5c0d\u7dad\u62c9\u65af\u79d1\u7b49\uff0c\u53d7\u8feb\u5bb3\u7684\u8a18\u61b6\u6f38\u6d88\uff0c\u88ab\u904e\u5f80\u5a01\u6b0a\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u79e9\u5e8f\u3001\u7e41\u69ae\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u4e4b\u5370\u8c61\u6240\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u653f\u6b0a\u8207\u9818\u8896\u7684\u5340\u8fa8\u80fd\u529b\u5c07\u6703\u5de6\u53f3\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u7a69\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u5373\u4fbf\u767c\u75c5\u4ea6\u7121\u9700\u904e\u65bc\u64d4\u6182\u3002\u627f\u524d\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u8f49\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u4e2d\u539f\u5148\u7684\u53cd\u5a01\u6b0a\u806f\u76df\u5c07\u6703\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u9996\u4efb\u9818\u8896\u5c07\u6703\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u6f38\u5931\u6548\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u6c11\u4ea6\u6216\u5c07\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\u672c\u8eab\u4e0d\u80fd\u70ba\u570b\u5bb6\u6240\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u793e\u6703\u554f\u984c\u63d0\u51fa\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u6545\u800c\u9818\u8896\u6642\u5e38\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662f\u72c2\u5984\u3001\u7121\u80fd\u3001\u8150\u6557\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e09\u8005\u517c\u5099\u3002\u6b64\u6642\u83c1\u82f1\u8207\u6c11\u773e\u5f9e\u539f\u5148\u7684\u6b61\u9a30\u4e2d\u9192\u4f86\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u958b\u59cb\u9069\u61c9\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0a\u8271\u8f9b\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u73fe\u5be6\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u89e3\u6c7a\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u554f\u984c\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u6703\u5931\u9748\uff0c\u800c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u5236\u5ea6\u5316\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u66f4\u63db\u653f\u5e9c\u4e4b\u653f\u9ad4\u3002\u7562\u7adf\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u89e3\u6c7a\u6240\u6709\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u53ea\u4ee3\u8868\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u66f4\u63db\uff0c\u7531\u4eba\u6c11\u9078\u64c7\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u4ed6\u5011\u6240\u6b32\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e4b\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4eba\u4f86\u7d71\u6cbb\uff1a\u300c\u7576\u4eba\u5011\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u6cbb\u53ea\u662f\u89e3\u6c7a\u5c08\u5236\u554f\u984c\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u8fa6\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u5920\u89e3\u6c7a\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u5c31\u6703\u8d8a\u52a0\u7a69\u56fa\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u5c31\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e4b\u7a69\u56fa\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u4e8c\u6b21\u8f2a\u66ff\u8003\u9a57\u300d\uff08two-turnover test\uff09\u4f5c\u70ba\u8861\u91cf\u6a19\u6e96\u3002\u4e8c\u6b21\u8f2a\u66ff\u6307\uff1a\u8f49\u578b\u521d\u6b21\u9078\u8209\u7684\u57f7\u653f\u5718\u9ad4\u5728\u6b64\u5f8c\u9078\u8209\u5931\u5229\u5c07\u6b0a\u529b\u8f49\u79fb\u7d66\u52dd\u9078\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u52dd\u9078\u8005\u53c8\u5c07\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u5e73\u8f49\u79fb\u7d66\u6b21\u5c46\u7684\u52dd\u9078\u8005\uff0c\u5982\u6b64\u653f\u6b0a\u5373\u53ef\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u978f\u56fa\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6e2c\u9a57\u6240\u5f97\u8aaa\u660e\u8005\u6709\u4e8c\uff1a\u4e00\u70ba\u793e\u6703\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9818\u5c0e\u968e\u5c64\u5fe0\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e14\u9858\u548c\u5e73\u8f49\u79fb\u6b0a\u529b\uff1b\u4e8c\u70ba\u83c1\u82f1\u8207\u4eba\u6c11\u7686\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\u5167\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u51fa\u4e86\u7d15\u6f0f\uff0c\u66ff\u63db\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u662f\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u653f\u6b0a\u672c\u8eab\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u7d50\u8ad6<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u8207\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e26\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u6703\u5728\u5a01\u6b0a\u653f\u9ad4\u4e2d\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5b83\u4ee3\u8868\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u5c40\u90e8\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u958b\u653e\u81ea\u7531\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u9078\u8209\u4ee5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u8207\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u95dc\u806f\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u9127\u5c0f\u5e73\u958b\u653e\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4f46\u81f3\u4eca\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u8aaa\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\uff08\u90e8\u4efd\uff09\u81ea\u7531\u5316\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f9e\u672a\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u3002\u82e5\u7528\u300a\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc\u6703\u5931\u6557\u300b\u4e2d\u9054\u9686\uff0e\u963f\u9f4a\u9ed8\u9b6f\uff08D. Acemoglu\uff09\u8207\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\uff0eA\uff0e\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee\uff08J. A. Robinson\uff09\u7684\u8a71\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d44\u5408\u7740\u9589\u9396\u6027\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u958b\u653e\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e4b\u570b\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7b2c\u4e09\u6ce2\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u4e2d\uff0c\u9078\u8209\u662f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u9078\u8209\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u9748\u9b42\u2500\u2500\u4e3b\u6b0a\u7684\u4e3b\u9ad4\u4e43\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u4eba\u6c11\u900f\u904e\u610f\u5fd7\u6c7a\u5b9a\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u9ad4\u5236\u4e0b\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u4ea6\u9075\u5f9e\u9019\u500b\u9ad4\u5236\u3002\u8d70\u5411\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\u4e5f\u597d\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u8996\u8005\u70ba\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u9019\u500b\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u8207\u884c\u52d5\u4e0a\u7684\u5be6\u8e10\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6ce8\u91cb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> \u898bhttp:\/\/pages.eiu.com\/rs\/753-RIQ-438\/images\/Democracy_Index_2017.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWkRKbU1HWmxNVEUwTW1FdyIsInQiOiJPdlltVFV0blFRQzZNVERCZHhVeitZRElmUGplOHh3NWs1d2wzVzdRS1JvNU1kVmUxQVRESU9LbEVSOVwvR1F4aG1PV1NlS0ZZcng4NzBcLzVNZ09JOUxiZU5TTEVPekVHayttOTRqQkQ5TkNzWGN08RlowQTZ0UzlUK0pDdm9PVGlcLyJ9<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> \u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u5a01\u6b0a\u653f\u9ad4\u4ee3\u8868\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4e0d\u6c11\u4e3b\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c<wbr \/>\u6545\u5305\u542b\u6975\u6b0a\u653f\u9ad4\u3001\u7368\u88c1\u653f\u9ad4\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> 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