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\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u8ced\u5834\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u96e3\u9053\u8aaa\uff0c\u7cbe\u5bc6\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u570b\u969b\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u53ea\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u5927\u8ced\u5834\uff0c\u5145\u6eff\u539f\u59cb\u7684\u52d5\u7269\u672c\u80fd\uff1fThe Hours Between Wolf And Dog: Risk Taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust<\/em> \u7684\u4f5c\u8005John Coates\u539f\u662f\u7d10\u7d04\u4e00\u4f4d\u91d1\u878d\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u4efb\u8077\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u3002\u4ed6\u5f9e\u81ea\u8eab\u7d93\u9a57\u51fa\u767c\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u52d5\u7269\u672c\u80fd\u3001\u6050\u61fc\u548c\u8caa\u5a6a\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u90fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u89e3\u91cb\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8d77\u4f0f\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7e3d\u662f\u76f8\u4fe1\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u884c\u70ba\u662f\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\uff0c\u56de\u61b6\u7576\u5e74\u79d1\u7db2\u80a1\u71b1\u6f6e\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u90fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u65b0\u6642\u4ee3\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u6ce1\u6cab\u7206\u7834\u624d\u9813\u89ba\u81ea\u5df1\u7576\u6642\u7684\u4ea2\u596e\u672a\u514d\u904e\u65bc\u5929\u771f\u3002\u66f4\u4f55\u6cc1\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u53ea\u662f\u5f48\u6307\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u9084\u672a\u4f86\u5f97\u53ca\u5b8c\u6210\u5404\u7a2e\u6f14\u7b97\uff0c\u8eab\u9ad4\u5df2\u7d93\u884c\u52d5\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91cb\u91d1\u878d\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7684\u8cb7\u8ce3\u884c\u70ba\uff1fCoates\u5f9e\u795e\u7d93\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5faa\u795e\u7d93\u7d30\u80de\u3001\u8377\u723e\u8499\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u91d1\u878d\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5192\u96aa\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u518d\u89e3\u91cb\u5e02\u5834\u6ce1\u6cab\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u5e02\u5834\u80fd\u5920\u63d0\u4f9b\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4f5c\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u7684\u89e3\u8b80\u4e5f\u975e\u6a5f\u68b0\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6a02\u89c0\u6642\u4ea2\u596e\u5927\u81bd\uff0c\u60b2\u89c0\u6642\u4fdd\u5b88\u5c0f\u5fc3\uff0c\u5168\u56e0\u8eab\u9ad4\u53cd\u61c9\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u9762\u5c0d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

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\u795e\u7d93\u79d1\u5b78\u66f4\u63ed\u793a\u4e86\u9019\u5957\u6846\u67b6\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u76f2\u9ede\uff1a\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\u7684\u5fc3\u7269\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7406\u6027\u7d93\u6fdf\u884c\u70ba\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u90fd\u628a\u6211\u5011\u7684\u8eab\u9ad4\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u3002\u8eab\u9ad4\u4e0d\u662f\u7368\u7acb\u65bc\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u662f\u7dca\u5bc6\u6e9d\u901a\u3001\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\uff0c\u795e\u7d93\u7cfb\u7d71\u7121\u6642\u7121\u523b\u5411\u5927\u8166\u50b3\u905e\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u518d\u7531\u5927\u8166\u8abf\u914d\u8eab\u9ad4\u5b98\u80fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u6e96\u5099\u3002Coates\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u8eab\u9ad4\u795e\u7d93\u7684\u9032\u5316\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u7b26\u5408\u6211\u5011\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u9700\u8981\uff1a\u5206\u8fa8\u6a5f\u6703\u8207\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u9069\u6642\u9032\u653b\uff0c\u9047\u96aa\u9003\u8d70\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u9762\u5c0d\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u7dca\u5f35\u3001\u4ea2\u596e\u6216\u662f\u64d4\u5fc3\u3002\u5982\u679c\u975c\u4e0b\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u9019\u4e26\u975e\u55ae\u7d14\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u66f4\u9023\u5e36\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u8eab\u9ad4\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u809a\u75db\u3001\u8840\u58d3\u548c\u8840\u7cd6\u5347\u9ad8\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u8b8a\u5316\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u5927\u8166\u5354\u8abf\u8eab\u9ad4\u5404\u500b\u90e8\u4f4d\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u8b93\u8eab\u9ad4\u9810\u5099\u9762\u5c0d\u5373\u5c07\u4f86\u81e8\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u9019\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u662f\u7121\u610f\u8b58\u7684\uff0c\u8eab\u9ad4\u795e\u7d93\u63a5\u6536\u8207\u5206\u6790\u8cc7\u8a0a\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u9060\u6bd4\u6211\u5011\u60f3\u50cf\u4e2d\u7cbe\u7d30\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u7121\u6642\u7121\u523b\u90fd\u5728\u8b58\u5225\u56db\u5468\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8207\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ea\u6703\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u60f3\u6cd5\u8207\u60c5\u7dd2\u7684\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u76f4\u89ba\uff08gut feelings\uff09\uff0c \u537b\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u8eab\u9ad4\u5167\u5728\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u540c\u6a23\uff0cCoates\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9280\u884c\u5bb6\u5728\u9032\u884c\u4ea4\u6613\u6642\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7684\u76f4\u89ba\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u662f\u96a8\u7740\u8cc7\u6b77\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u529b\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u8eab\u9ad4\u5728\u7121\u610f\u8b58\u5730\u904e\u6ffe\u7192\u5e55\u4e2d\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6578\u64da\u5f8c\uff0c\u70ba\u5373\u5c07\u5230\u4f86\u7684\u5371\u96aa\u6216\u6a5f\u6703\u4f5c\u6e96\u5099\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5f71\u97ff\u7576\u4e8b\u4eba\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u9762\u5c0d\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\uff0c\u795e\u7d93\u79d1\u5b78\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u7368\u7279\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u89e3\u91cb\u7d93\u6fdf\u884c\u70ba\uff1a\u6211\u5011\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u884c\u70ba\u90fd\u53d7\u795e\u7d93\u8207\u5927\u8166\u7684\u6e9d\u901a\u5354\u8abf\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u5c31\u662f\u8b58\u5225\u5371\u96aa\u548c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u96aa\u96d6\u7136\u4e26\u4e0d\u81f4\u547d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7136\u6703\u6311\u8d77\u751f\u7406\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u6709\u6642\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u96aa\u751a\u81f3\u6bd4\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u8eab\u9ad4\u98a8\u96aa\u9084\u4f86\u5f97\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u98a8\u96aa\u6240\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u751f\u7406\u9632\u885b\u6a5f\u5236\u96e3\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u9577\u6642\u9593\u7684\u98a8\u66b4\uff0c\u58d3\u529b\u8377\u723e\u8499\u9577\u7559\u9ad4\u5167\uff0c\u53ef\u767c\u5c55\u6210\u5404\u7a2e\u6162\u6027\u75be\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u548c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u5728\u7372\u5229\u6642\u610f\u6c23\u98a8\u767c\uff0c\u60f3\u7740\u518d\u4e0b\u4e00\u57ce\uff0c\u5192\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u96aa\uff1b\u5728\u8ce0\u9322\u6642\u5247\u8b8a\u5f97\u81bd\u5c0f\u6015\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u582a\u4e00\u64ca\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7684\u751f\u7406\u53cd\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u6211\u5011\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8207\u884c\u52d5\uff1f\u53c8\u600e\u6a23\u89e3\u91cb\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u70ba\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8377\u723e\u8499\u6295\u8cc7<\/strong><\/p>\n

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