{"id":1758,"date":"2018-11-18T17:19:29","date_gmt":"2018-11-18T09:19:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=1758"},"modified":"2018-11-13T17:32:15","modified_gmt":"2018-11-13T09:32:15","slug":"%e9%87%8d%e6%96%b0%e5%b4%9b%e8%b5%b7%e7%9a%84%e3%80%8c%e6%96%b0%e7%a7%a6%e6%bc%a2%e6%94%bf%e9%ab%94%e3%80%8d%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e3%80%8a%e4%b8%ad%e8%8f%af%e7%a7%a9%e5%ba%8f%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e5%8e%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paratext.hk\/?p=1758","title":{"rendered":"\u91cd\u65b0\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u300c\u65b0\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u300d\u2500\u2500\u300a\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u4e2d\u539f\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300b\u5f15\u8a00"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u539f\u6587\u520a\u65bc\u300a\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u4e2d\u539f\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300b\uff08\u53f0\u5317\uff1a\u516b\u65d7\u6587\u5316\uff0c<\/strong><strong>2018<\/strong><strong>\uff09\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u70ba\u7de8\u8f2f\u64ec\u5b9a\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p 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href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\"><sup>[1]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u5982\u540c\u9810\u671f\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u95dc\u4e2d\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u66f8\u7c4d\u6587\u7ae0\u5df2\u7d93\u6c57\u725b\u5145\u68df\u30022014\u5e74\u7684\u516d\u500b\u6708\u88e1\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5c31\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u767e\u591a\u7a2e\u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u82f1\u6587\u66f8\u7c4d\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\"><sup>[2]<\/sup><\/a>\u5176\u5171\u540c\u4e3b\u984c\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u9084\u7279\u5730\u53bb\u300c\u63ed\u7955\u300d\u4e2d\u570b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8457\u8ff0\u8207\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u7814\u7a76\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u7570\u5df1\u529b\u91cf\u2500\u2500\u524d\u8607\u806f\u2500\u2500\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u6210\u679c\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u55ac\u6cbb\uff0e\u51f1\u5357\uff08George Kennan\uff091947\u5e74\u5728\u300a\u5c0d\u5916\u95dc\u4fc2\u300b\uff08Foreign Affairs\uff09\u96dc\u8a8c\u533f\u540d\u767c\u8868\u5206\u6790\u8607\u806f\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u897f\u65b9\u5b78\u754c\u8fc5\u901f\u532f\u96c6\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6301\u7e8c\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5c0d\u8607\u904f\u5236\u548c\u51b7\u6230\u5927\u6230\u7565\u3002\u800c\u8fc4\u4eca\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u6d77\u91cf\u6587\u737b\u5927\u591a\u5145\u6eff\u9072\u7591\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u6fc3\u539a\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u548c\u6df7\u6c8c\u611f\uff0c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u548c\u5805\u5b9a\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u300c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300d\uff08uncertainty\uff09\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2d\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u9375\u8a5e\u3002\u5c0d\u73fe\u5728\u4e3b\u5c0e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u9818\u8896\u5011\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u5927\u9ad4\u4e0a\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u61c9\u4ed8\u8207\u8499\u6df7\u6230\u7565\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6df7\u5408\u8457\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u8868\u793a\u6b61\u8fce\u7684\u63a5\u89f8\u3001\u7d8f\u9756\u548c\u8b93\u6b65\uff08engagement\uff09\uff1b\u67d0\u4e9b\u5fc3\u5b58\u6050\u61fc\u3001\u4ee5\u9632\u842c\u4e00\u7684\u5f8c\u5099\u63aa\u65bd\uff08hedging\uff09\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e00\u7a2e\u9811\u56fa\u7684\u3001\u8a66\u5716\u540c\u5316\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u671f\u5f85\uff08incorporation\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u6240\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\u6726\u6727\u4e0d\u6e05\u548c\u7336\u7591\u4e0d\u6c7a\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u65e2\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5145\u5206\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u610f\u5473\u8457\u751a\u9ebc\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u66f4\u662f\u504f\u9817\u6e38\u79fb\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u570b\uff0c\u7684\u78ba\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u8ff7\u8def\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u662f\u56f0\u60d1\u4e0d\u89e3\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u5982\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3001\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6216\u8005\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e26\u4e0d\u5927\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff0c\u800c\u5806\u7a4d\u5982\u5c71\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u8a0a\u606f\u751a\u81f3\u795e\u8a71\uff08\u7d93\u5e38\u662f\u6709\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u88fd\u9020\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u5de7\u5999\u6545\u4e8b\uff09\u6df7\u4e82\u800c\u81ea\u76f8\u77db\u76fe\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6bcf\u5206\u9418\u90fd\u5728\u9583\u720d\u8b8a\u5e7b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5df2\u6545\u5b78\u8005\u5305\u745e\u5609\uff08Richard Baum\uff09\u8a55\u8ad6\u8aaa\uff0c\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u5947\u7279\u3001\u4ee4\u4eba\u6cae\u55aa\u3001\u8ff7\u4eba\u8207\u5371\u96aa\u4ea4\u7e54\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u300d\uff1b\u8cc7\u6df1\u89c0\u5bdf\u5bb6\u767d\u90a6\u745e\uff08Michael Pillsbury\uff09\u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4ee5\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u9032\u884c\u4e00\u5ec2\u60c5\u9858\u7684\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u8b93\u300c\u897f\u65b9\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u548c\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u4e00\u518d\u628a\u4e2d\u570b\u641e\u932f\u300d\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\"><sup>[3]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u897f\u65b9\u5b78\u754c\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u722d\u8ad6\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u8207\u5e7b\u50cf\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u89c0\u5bdf\u8005\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u91cb\u8207\u69cb\u5efa\uff1b\u6709\u4eba\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u5728\u60f3\u751a\u9ebc\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u60f3\uff0c\u4e26\u5f97\u51fa\u5404\u7a2e\u7d50\u8ad6\u548c\u5404\u7a2e\u5047\u8a2d\uff1b\u6709\u4eba\u8f49\u5411\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5c0b\u6c42\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u6027\uff0c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4e2d\u7f8e\u885d\u7a81\u662f\u5426\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u90a3\u6a23\u7684\u6beb\u7121\u610f\u7fa9\u7684\u60b2\u5287\u5bbf\u547d\u3002\u6709\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u63a2\u7d22\u4e2d\u570b\u7279\u6709\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4e2d\u5fc3\u89c0\u5ff5\u53ca\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\uff1b\u6709\u4eba\u65b7\u8a00\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u200b\u200b\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u4e2d\u570b\u8981\u53d6\u4ee3\u7f8e\u570b\u3001\u9818\u5c0e\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u767e\u5e74\u99ac\u62c9\u677e\uff1b\u6709\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u6311\u6230\u5728\u65bc\u5982\u4f55\u53bb\u5851\u9020\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u9078\u9805\u548c\u884c\u52d5\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u904f\u5236\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\uff1b\u6709\u4eba\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u767c\u73fe\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u300c\u7ba1\u63a7\u5c08\u5236\u300d\uff08controlocracy\uff09\u8207\u300c\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5b83\u4e0d\u904e\u662f\u500b\u4f4e\u6548\u800c\u52a3\u8cea\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u570b\u5bb6\uff1b\u9084\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u958b\u59cb\u8d70\u5411\u7d50\u675f\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u751a\u9ebc\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u6b63\u5728\u6f70\u6557\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u4ea8\u5229\uff0e\u5b63\u8f9b\u5409\uff08Henry Kissinger\uff09\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u6210\u529f\u6216\u8005\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u5c0d\u6574\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u548c\u4eba\u985e\u798f\u7949\uff0c\u90fd\u5c07\u5e36\u4f86\u96e3\u4ee5\u78ba\u5b9a\u4f46\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\"><sup>[4]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u672c\u66f8\u52a0\u5165\u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5168\u9762\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u3002\u900f\u904e\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u8b80\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6027\u5730\u5c55\u793a\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u751a\u9ebc\u300d\u4ee5\u53ca\u300c\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u751a\u9ebc\u300d\u3002\u5177\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u8457\u91cd\u63cf\u8ff0\u8207\u5206\u6790\u300c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u300d\uff08The China Order\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08authoritarianism\uff09\u3001\u4e14\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u6975\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08totalitarianism\uff09\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c<a href=\"#_ftn5\" name=\"_ftnref5\"><sup>[5]<\/sup><\/a>\u5960\u57fa\u65bc\u7528\u5112\u5b78\u7c89\u98fe\u5176\u8868\u7684\u6cd5\u5bb6\u5e1d\u570b\u653f\u9ad4\uff08\u5373\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u3001Qin-Han Polity\uff09\u4e4b\u4e0a\u3002\u51e1\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c\u5fc5\u7136\u8981\u4ee5\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4f5c\u70ba\u5176\u5929\u547d\uff08Mandate of Heaven\uff09\uff0c\u4f86\u8b49\u660e\u548c\u634d\u885b\u81ea\u5df1\uff0c\u53bb\u7d71\u4e00\u3001\u898f\u7bc4\u3001\u7d71\u6cbb\u6574\u500b\u5df2\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5929\u4e0b\u300d\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u56e0\u6b64\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u6027\u7684\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u3002\u5b83\u690d\u6839\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u4e2d\u539f\u6216\u8005\u4e2d\u571f\uff08Centralia\uff09\u7684\u5730\u7406\u751f\u614b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\uff08world empire\uff09\uff0c\u5f9e\u897f\u5143\u524d\u4e09\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u671f\u5230\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u8449\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7d71\u6cbb\u4e86\u6574\u500b\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u6771\u90e8\u7684\u5404\u500b\u6c11\u65cf\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u65b7\u6f14\u5316\u4ee5\u8da8\u65bc\u5b8c\u5584\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\"><sup>[6]<\/sup><\/a>\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u7406\u5ff5\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u50b3\u7d71\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u95dc\u9375\u6027\u7279\u8cea\u3002\u5728\u9019\u5169\u5343\u591a\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u6574\u500b\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\uff08Chinese World\uff09\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u6709\u904e\u591a\u6b21\u5206\u88c2\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u591a\u570b\u5206\u6cbb\u6642\u671f\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u65b7\u5c64\u671f\u662f\u5b8b\u4ee3\uff0810\u201313\u4e16\u7d00\uff09\u3002\u5b8b\u4ee3\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u7d93\u9a57\u548c\u6559\u8a13\u8c50\u5bcc\u800c\u91cd\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u4e00\u76f4\u672a\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u5145\u5206\u63a2\u8a0e\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\u5c07\u6703\u5c0d\u6b64\u4ed4\u7d30\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\uff0c\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u64f4\u5f35\u548c\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u6cdb\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0f\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08political universalism\uff09\u7576\u7136\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u7279\u6709\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u5404\u500b\u5927\u9678\u4e0a\u90fd\u66fe\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b58\u5225\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u6216\u300c\u666e\u4e16\u5e1d\u570b\u300d\uff08universal empire\uff09\u7684\u653f\u6b0a\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn7\" name=\"_ftnref7\"><sup>[7]<\/sup><\/a>\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u5929\u4e0b\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u5373\u6574\u500b\u5df2\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\uff09\u8fd1\u4f3c\u65bc\u53e4\u5e0c\u81d8\u4eba\u548c\u53e4\u7f85\u99ac\u4eba\u7684\u300c\u6709\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u300d\uff08\u03bf\u1f30\u03ba\u03bf\u03c5\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03b7\u548coecumene\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f8c\u4f86\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u7684\u6574\u500b\u300c\u57fa\u7763\u4e16\u754c\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6587\u660e\u4e16\u754c\u300d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5e1d\u570b\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u5011\uff0c\u5f9e\u7f85\u99ac\u4eba\u3001\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u4eba\u5230\u82f1\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u90fd\u5922\u60f3\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u4e00\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u5e1d\u570b\uff0c\u4ee5\u7d71\u6cbb\u6574\u500b\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6709\u4eba\u5c45\u4f4f\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff08oikoum\u00e9n\u0113\uff09\u3002\u4f46\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u5929\u4e0b\u9ad4\u7cfb\u5373\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u6700\u6301\u4e45\u3001\u6700\u7368\u7279\u7684\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5fb9\u5e95\u800c\u7cbe\u7dfb\uff1b\u5728\u4eca\u65e5\u4e2d\u570b\u4f9d\u7136\u6709\u8457\u7121\u51fa\u5176\u53f3\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u8a31\u591a\u5176\u4ed6\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\uff08\u4ee5\u53ca\u60f3\u6210\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u529b\u91cf\uff09\u2500\u2500\u5982\u53e4\u57c3\u53ca\u6cd5\u8001\u3001\u6ce2\u65af\u5e1d\u570b\u3001\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u54c8\u91cc\u767c\u3001\u5e16\u6728\u5152\u6c57\u570b\u3001\u5370\u52a0\u5e1d\u570b\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e16\u754c\u6cd5\u897f\u65af\u4e3b\u7fa9\u904b\u52d5\u53ca\u4e16\u754c\u5171\u7522\u4e3b\u7fa9\u904b\u52d5\u7b49\u7b49\u2500\u2500\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u66fe\u9023\u7e8c\u6578\u767e\u5e74\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u4e26\u7d71\u6cbb\u4e86\u5176\u652f\u6301\u8005\u5011\u78ba\u4fe1\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u5df2\u77e5\u4e16\u754c\uff1b\u5728\u5169\u5343\u591a\u5e74\u5167\u5df2\u88ab\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u4eba\u7fa4\uff08\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\uff09\u6df1\u6df1\u5167\u5316\u70ba\u67d0\u7a2e\u4fe1\u689d\uff1a\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0d\u50c5\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u512a\u8d8a\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u4ee3\u8868\u7279\u6b8a\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u7bc4\u548c\u6587\u5316\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4ecd\u7136\u6d3b\u8457\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u7bc4\u7587\uff0c\u7336\u5982\u6b50\u6d32\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u6ce2\u666e\u723e\uff08Karl Popper\uff09\u300c\u5c01\u9589\u793e\u6703\u300d\uff08closed society\uff09\u6982\u5ff5\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7248\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u7a2e\u653f\u9ad4\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u5728\u5be6\u8e10\u4e2d\u53ef\u884c\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u6b77\u53f2\u8003\u9a57\uff0c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u4e5f\u662f\u8a98\u4eba\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u793e\u6703\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u65b9\u9762\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u662f\u500b\u6b21\u512a\u5316\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u5b83\u66fe\u88ab\u4e00\u4e9b\u53f2\u5bb6\u6709\u4e9b\u6a21\u7cca\u5730\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u79e9\u5e8f\u300d\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn8\" name=\"_ftnref8\"><sup>[8]<\/sup><\/a>\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u6587\u660e\uff0c\u6709\u522b\u65bc\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u5730\u4e2d\u6d77\u2500\u6b50\u6d32\u4e16\u754c\uff08Mediterranean-European World\uff09\u6587\u660e\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u5728\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u9075\u5faa\u3001\u96a8\u5f8c\u5728\u6cd5\u7406\u4e0a\u8a8d\u53ef\u4e00\u7a2e\u570b\u969b\u6bd4\u8f03\u548c\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5373\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff08Westphalia System\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u671f\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e5f\u88ab\u5f37\u529b\u7d0d\u5165\u4e86\u6e90\u81ea\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002\u7136\u800c1949\u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5fa9\u8f9f\u4e26\u8e10\u884c\u4e86\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e00\u5982\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u5e1d\u570b\u541b\u738b\u5011\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u547d\u4e2d\u6ce8\u5b9a\u8981\u4ee5\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9762\u8c8c\u53bb\u91cd\u65b0\u898f\u7bc4\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u5176\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u548c\u653f\u6b0a\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u4e5f\u5982\u540c\u4ee5\u5f80\u7684\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5c0d\u5b83\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u5be6\u884c\u4f4e\u52a3\u6b20\u4f73\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u5bcc\u570b\u5f37\u5175\uff0c\u5728\u570b\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u5728\u5eff\u4e00\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\uff0c\u8207\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7279\u5225\u662f\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u79e9\u5e8f\u300d\uff08American Order\uff09\u2500\u2500\u5373\u4e8c\u6230\u548c\u51b7\u6230\u5f8c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u89c0\u5ff5\u6839\u672c\u5c0d\u7acb\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u56fa\u57f7\u4e0d\u8b8a\u7684\u3001\u91cd\u65b0\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u300c\u65b0\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u300d\uff0c\u5fc5\u5c07\u5f37\u52e2\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7d66\u5168\u7403\u4eba\u985e\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u9019\u5c0d\u653f\u6cbb\u6cbb\u7406\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u78ba\u800c\u4e14\u610f\u7fa9\u91cd\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6e90\u6d41\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5167\u9811\u5f37\u5b58\u6d3b<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff08\u4e00\u81f3\u56db\u7ae0\uff09\uff0c\u63cf\u8ff0\u548c\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u3001\u6027\u8cea\u3001\u524d\u666f\u548c\u610f\u7fa9\u3002\u6211\u4e5f\u5617\u8a66\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u6cbb\u7406\u3001\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u3001\u79d1\u5b78\u6280\u8853\u9032\u6b65\u3001\u6587\u5316\u548c\u793e\u6703\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u6c11\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u6e96\u5404\u500b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8a55\u50f9\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8868\u73fe\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u5c0d\u5404\u7a2e\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u5011\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u90fd\u6975\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0a\u766e\uff1b\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u83c1\u82f1\u4eba\u58eb\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u7a2e\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u52d5\u6416\u7684\u5408\u6cd5\u6027\u3002\u4f46\u5b83\u5728\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u4e0a\u7684\u8a18\u9304\u537b\u4e0d\u751a\u512a\u79c0\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5341\u5206\u4f4e\u52a3\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u6709\u904e\u591a\u6b21\u738b\u671d\u8208\u4ea1\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u6587\u660e\u537b\u662f\u9577\u671f\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u300c\u8d85\u7a69\u5b9a\u300d\u7d50\u69cb\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn9\" name=\"_ftnref9\"><sup>[9]<\/sup><\/a>\u76f4\u5230\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u8449\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u624d\u56e0\u5916\u4f86\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u800c\u5d29\u6f70\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u4e0d\u518d\u662f\u5929\u4e0b\uff0c\u800c\u88ab\u964d\u4f4e\u70ba\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e00\u5c0f\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\u5011\u5c0d\u6b64\u5f9e\u4f86\u6c92\u6709\u6eff\u610f\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u767e\u5e74\u570b\u6065\u300d\uff081840\u5e74\u4ee3\u20131949\uff09\u671f\u9593\u5176\u5be6\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u5049\u5927\u7684\u8a66\u9a57\u548c\u9032\u6b65\u3002\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u548c\u4e3b\u6d41\u6b77\u53f2\u6558\u4e8b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7f3a\u5931\u6216\u8005\u5f31\u5316\u7684\u6642\u671f\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u6cd5\u7406\u4e0a\u6216\u8005\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u63a1\u53d6\u4e86\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6642\u671f\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6642\u671f\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5148\u79e6\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u5b8b\u4ee3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u2500\u2500\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u2500\u2500\u5728\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u610f\u7fa9\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8b8a\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u4e00\u8b8a\u9769\u52301949\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u6210\u7acb\u5f8c\u88ab\u5f37\u529b\u4e2d\u6b62\u4e26\u626d\u8f49\u3002\u4e2d\u5171\u9769\u547d\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u5049\u5927\u52dd\u5229\uff0c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u88ab\u8b49\u660e\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53f2\u8a69\u7d1a\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5927\u8e8d\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u5373\u7b2c\u4e94\u81f3\u7b2c\u4e03\u7ae0\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u63ed\u793a\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u6240\u56fa\u6709\u7684\u5c0b\u6c42\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5167\u5728\u908f\u8f2f\u548c\u4f7f\u547d\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5167\u9811\u5f37\u5b58\u6d3b\uff0c\u53ca\u5176\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u525d\u53bb\u63a9\u84cb\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u53ca\u5176\u9a45\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u53bb\u8ffd\u6c42\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u9019\u500b\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\u7684\u7a2e\u7a2e\u6709\u610f\u7121\u610f\u7684\u5305\u88dd\u7c89\u98fe\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8b80\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u3001\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u6027\u8cea\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u61c9\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\uff0c\u5c31\u8b8a\u5f97\u5341\u5206\u7c21\u55ae\u660e\u77ad\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u4ee4\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u5e38\u8aa4\u5831\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u4e26\u8aa4\u5c0e\u4eba\u5011\u7684\u6545\u5f04\u7384\u865b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5bb6\u5011\u548c\u904e\u65bc\u71b1\u5fc3\u7684\u8faf\u58eb\u5011\u5927\u5931\u6240\u671b\u3002\u8a73\u7d30\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5728\u6cbb\u7406\u4e0a\u548c\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u4e0a\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u8a18\u9304\uff0c\u5c07\u662f\u7b46\u8005\u53e6\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u3002\u5728\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u50c5\u7c21\u7565\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e2d\u5171\u70ba\u4e86\u751f\u5b58\u3001\u6b0a\u529b\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u800c\u5728\u570b\u5167\u570b\u5916\u7684\u4e0d\u65b7\u9b25\u722d\u3002\u8eab\u8655\u4e00\u500b\u6c92\u6709\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u6df1\u53d7\u5176\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8271\u96e3\u547d\u904b\u6240\u9a45\u4f7f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u6cbb\u4e0b\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff0c\u5728\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u767c\u5c55\u9032\u7a0b\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u60b2\u5287\u6027\u5927\u5f4e\u8def\uff1a\u8017\u8cbb\u4e86\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u547d\u3001\u91d1\u9322\u548c\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u7dad\u8b77\u5176\u653f\u6b0a\u5916\u537b\u6240\u7372\u751a\u5fae\u3002\u5177\u6709\u8af7\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u653f\u6b0a\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u53ea\u662f\u901a\u904e\u9078\u64c7\u6027\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u897f\u65b9\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u624d\u5f97\u5230\u62ef\u6551\u4e26\u5f97\u4ee5\u81f4\u5bcc\u58ef\u5927\u3002\u56de\u52301949\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u9053\u8def\u4e0a\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u529b\u91cf\u96a8\u8457\u570b\u5bb6\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u91cd\u5546\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5730\u5f37\u76db\u8d77\u4f86\uff1b\u6df1\u85cf\u4e0d\u6563\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u4e5f\u96a8\u4e4b\u5fa9\u7526\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u5c0d\u7576\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u5168\u9762\u6311\u6230\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6311\u6230\u5305\u62ec\u4e86\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5b78\u754c\u65b0\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08Neorealism\uff09\u548c\u5efa\u69cb\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff08Constructivism\uff09\u7406\u8ad6\u6240\u63cf\u8ff0\u904e\u7684\u5169\u7a2e\u57fa\u672c\u8def\u5f91\uff1a\u4e00\u3001\u570b\u969b\u9ad4\u7cfb\u4e2d\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u5927\u5206\u5e03\uff1b\u4e8c\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e4b\u5404\u570b\u4e3b\u6b0a\u5e73\u7b49\u5b9a\u5e8f\u539f\u5247\uff08ordering principle\uff09\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn10\" name=\"_ftnref10\"><sup>[10]<\/sup><\/a>\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u65b0\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u65e5\u76ca\u5f37\u5927\uff0c\u7531\u6b64\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u6eff\u8db3\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u300d\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u5df2\u7d93\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u300c\u88d9\u5e36\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff08crony capitalism\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u5275\u9020\u7684\u8a98\u4eba\u7684\u7aca\u570b\u8150\u6557\u5b98\u50da\u653f\u6cbb\uff08kleptocracy\uff09\uff0c\u53ea\u6703\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\u548c\u6311\u6230\u66f4\u5177\u6709\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u3001\u66f4\u6709\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\u3002<a href=\"#_ftn11\" name=\"_ftnref11\"><sup>[11]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u5404\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\u7c21\u4ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u7ae0\u65e8\u5728\u56de\u7b54\u4e09\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u751a\u9ebc\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6216\u8005\u4e2d\u83ef\uff1f\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u7de8\u5beb\u7684\u4ee5\u53ca\u61c9\u8a72\u600e\u6a23\u89e3\u8b80\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\uff1f\u751a\u9ebc\u5851\u9020\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u601d\u60f3\u548c\u50b3\u7d71\uff1f\u85c9\u7531\u5c0d\u4e2d\u83ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u3001\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u6b0a\u548c\u4e00\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u3001\u4e00\u500b\u81ea\u6210\u4e00\u7d71\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u4e2d\u539f\u6216\u8005\u4e2d\u571f\uff08Centralia\uff09\u7684\u8af8\u9805\u57fa\u672c\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u8b80\uff0c\u672c\u7ae0\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u8c50\u5bcc\u800c\u591a\u5143\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\u3002\u5b83\u8ad6\u8ff0\u4e86\u6b77\u53f2\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u5b97\u6559\u89d2\u8272\u4ee5\u53ca\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u8b80\u4e2d\u570b\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u8feb\u5207\u9700\u8981\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u4e5f\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u897f\u5143\u524d\u4e09\u4e16\u7d00\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6230\u570b\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5c01\u5efa\u7684\u3001\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u5f0f\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7ae0\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u83ef\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u7406\u5ff5\u8207\u50b3\u7d71\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u662f\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7684\u3001\u5929\u4e0b\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u79e6\u6f22\u5e1d\u570b\u653f\u9ad4\u4e4b\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u662f\u5112\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f46\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u662f\u6cd5\u5bb6\uff08\u6216\u73fe\u5be6\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff09\u7684\u5c08\u5236\u653f\u9ad4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u6027\u8cea\u662f\u5a01\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6975\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u547d\u4e2d\u6ce8\u5b9a\u70ba\u4e86\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u53bb\uff08\u6216\u8005\u5047\u88dd\u53bb\uff09\u5f81\u670d\u548c\u7d71\u6cbb\u6574\u500b\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u662f\u4eba\u5011\u7279\u5225\u52aa\u529b\u70ba\u4e4b\u548c\u7cbe\u5fc3\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6191\u85c9\u6b66\u529b\u3001\u6b0a\u8853\u3001\u8a6d\u8a08\u4ee5\u53ca\u7d14\u7cb9\u7684\u904b\u6c23\u7b49\u5076\u7136\u56e0\u7d20\u800c\u5f97\u4ee5\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u4eba\u985e\u653f\u6cbb\u6cbb\u7406\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u91cd\u5927\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u6709\u8457\u81ea\u6211\u5f37\u5316\u4e26\u4e0d\u65b7\u8907\u88fd\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u3002\u5b83\u5c0d\u5404\u6c11\u65cf\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u90fd\u6975\u5177\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0a\u766e\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u5fc3\u88e1\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u8d85\u7a69\u5b9a\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u80fd\u5920\u4e3b\u5bb0\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u4e26\u4f7f\u4e4b\u505c\u6eef\u4e0d\u524d\uff0c\u9577\u9054\u8a31\u591a\u4e16\u7d00\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u4e09\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5c0d\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u653f\u6cbb\u53f2\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u5225\u968e\u6bb5\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e00\u7a2e\u4fee\u6b63\u7684\u8a8d\u8b58\u3002\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86\u6975\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\u3001\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u5b8b\u4ee3\uff0810\u201313\u4e16\u7d00\uff09\u6642\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e2d\u65b7\u3002\u7576\u6642\u6574\u500b\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u6771\u90e8\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6cd5\u7406\u4e0a\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u570b\u969b\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u5373\u6fb6\u6df5\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002\u9019\u662f\u500b\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u3001\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u66f2\u89e3\u4e43\u81f3\u62cb\u68c4\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5927\u8f49\u6298\uff0c\u88e1\u9762\u860a\u542b\u8457\u5c0d\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u4e16\u754c\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u90fd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u88e8\u76ca\u7684\u8c50\u5bcc\u4fe1\u606f\u3002\u5b8b\u4ee3\u4e4b\u6fb6\u6df5\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6d88\u4ea1\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u79e6\u570b\u7d50\u675f\u6230\u570b\u6642\u4ee3\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u4e2d\u83ef\u6587\u660e\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u60b2\u5287\u6027\u6467\u6bc0\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u56db\u7ae0\u8003\u5bdf\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u8207\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u7279\u9ede\u548c\u6b77\u53f2\u8a18\u9304\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u7e3d\u7d50\u548c\u8a55\u8b70\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7279\u5fb5\u3001\u7570\u5e38\u7684\u6301\u4e45\u529b\uff0c\u53ca\u5176\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u5fa9\u8f9f\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4ee5\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u773c\u5149\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u5c0d\u7d71\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u3001\u5c0d\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff1b\u4f46\u8a18\u9304\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u8207\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u6cbb\u7406\u3001\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u3001\u6587\u5316\u751f\u6d3b\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u505c\u6eef\u3001\u843d\u5f8c\u3001\u6975\u70ba\u6b21\u512a\u5316\uff08suboptimal\uff09\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4e0b\u7684\u4eba\u6c11\u4e0d\u50c5\u82e6\u96e3\u6df1\u91cd\uff0c\u9084\u5468\u671f\u6027\u5730\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u975e\u81ea\u7136\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u5c31\u5982\u4f55\u7406\u89e3\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u9577\u547d\u8207\u505c\u6eef\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u4e94\u7ae0\u91cd\u65b0\u89e3\u8b80\u4e26\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u8449\u5230\u4e8c\u5341\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u8449\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u53f2\u3002\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6642\u671f\u88e1\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u5728\u5be6\u8e10\u4e2d\u5206\u5d29\u96e2\u6790\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u6df1\u9060\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u89c0\u5ff5\u548c\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u5b83\u4e26\u672a\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u672c\u7ae0\u8003\u5bdf\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6f2b\u9577\u4e16\u7d00\u88e1\u7d93\u53d7\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u885d\u64ca\u548c\u7d93\u6b77\u7684\u5b8f\u5927\u8b8a\u9769\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5145\u6eff\u5be6\u9a57\u548c\u9032\u6b65\u7684\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u6b77\u53f2\u6558\u4e8b\u6240\u5ba3\u7a31\u7684\u300c\u767e\u5e74\u570b\u6065\u300d\u3002\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u6771\u90e8\u5404\u65cf\u4eba\u6c11\u90fd\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u5049\u5927\u9032\u6b65\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u78ba\u5be6\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u79e6\u6f22\u7d71\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u5011\u906d\u53d7\u5de8\u5927\u632b\u6557\u548c\u5c48\u8fb1\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002\u9811\u5f37\u7684\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u901a\u904e1949\u5e74\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff0c\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u770b\u4f3c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u4f46\u6700\u7d42\u537b\u4e0d\u53ef\u963b\u64cb\u7684\u5168\u9762\u5fa9\u8f9f\uff0c\u6253\u788e\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u539a\u671b\u4e5f\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u932f\u5931\u4e86\u91cd\u5927\u6a5f\u9047\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u516d\u7ae0\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e26\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u73fe\u4eca\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5275\u7acb\u53ca\u5176\u672c\u8cea\u3002\u5de7\u5999\u5730\u7528\u6c11\u547d\u6216\u8005\u6c11\u610f\uff08Mandate of the People\uff09\u53d6\u4ee3\u5929\u547d\u6216\u8005\u5929\u610f\uff08Mandate of Heaven\uff09\uff0c\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u5e36\u9818\u7531\u5916\u570b\u5275\u7acb\u548c\u8cc7\u52a9\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\uff0c\u5728\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u671f\u9593\u5d1b\u8d77\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u79e6\u570b\u5f0f\u7684\u6975\u6b0a\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u6b0a\u3002\u6191\u85c9\u5176\u7cbe\u660e\u7684\u6b0a\u8853\u548c\u5f37\u5927\u7684\u6b66\u529b\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u57281949\u81f31950\u5e74\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e86\u5167\u6230\uff0c\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u3002\u4e2d\u5171\u501f\u52a9\u65bc\u9032\u53e3\u7684\u610f\u8b58\u5f62\u614b\u8853\u8a9e\u548c\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5916\u90e8\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u5275\u5efa\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\uff0c\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u8e8d\u9000\u548c\u5927\u5f4e\u8def\uff0c\u62b5\u92b7\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u81ea\u5341\u4e5d\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u671f\u4ee5\u4f86\u53d6\u5f97\u7684\u8af8\u591a\u9032\u6b65\u3002\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u5c08\u5236\u96c6\u5718\u7d71\u6cbb\u4e0b\u8f49\u4e16\u5fa9\u6d3b\u7684\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u5217\u5be7\u4e3b\u7fa9\u3001\u53f2\u9054\u6797\u4e3b\u7fa9\u9ee8\u570b\u3002\u9019\u500b\u65b0\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u5176\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u751f\u5b58\u548c\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u5c0d\u5167\u5c0d\u5916\u90fd\u4e00\u76f4\u6b8a\u6b7b\u596e\u9b25\uff1a\u5c0d\u5167\uff0c\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u793e\u6703\u548c\u6587\u5316\uff08\u4e0a\u500b\u4e16\u7d00\u4ee5\u4f86\u5df2\u7d93\u767c\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u8b8a\u5316\uff09\u4e0d\u61c8\u9b25\u722d\uff1b\u5c0d\u5916\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u53cd\u5c0d\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6574\u500b\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u7121\u4f11\u6b62\u7684\u62fc\u9b25\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u5e36\u4f86\u60b2\u5287\u6027\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6cbb\u7406\uff0c\u53ca\u5931\u6557\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u9000\u56de\u52301949\u5e74\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u8ecc\u9053\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u5f15\u9032\u548c\u6a21\u4eff\u5916\u570b\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\u7684\u5049\u5927\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5176\u7e3d\u9ad4\u8a18\u9304\u8fc4\u4eca\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u6b21\u512a\u5316\u7684\u3002\u5728\u6c11\u4e3b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u4ecd\u7136\u6bd4\u4e0d\u4e0a\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u524d\u88ab\u5b83\u53d6\u4ee3\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u7528\u8aaa\u8207\u4eca\u5929\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u6c11\u570b\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7b2c\u4e03\u7ae0\u6982\u8ff01949\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\uff1a\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u6301\u4e45\u800c\u5287\u70c8\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u5927\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u662f\u9019\u500b\u65b0\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u56fa\u570b\u6709\u7684\u5929\u4e0b\u653f\u6cbb\u4f7f\u547d\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u662f\u5176\u96e3\u4ee5\u64fa\u812b\u7684\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002\u88ab\u79e6\u6f22\u653f\u9ad4\u7684\u5167\u5728\u908f\u8f2f\u6240\u9a45\u4f7f\uff0c\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u672c\u80fd\u5730\u7aed\u529b\u63a8\u52d5\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u91cd\u5efa\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u5922\u6dd2\u6158\u7834\u6ec5\u3002\u7576\u5317\u4eac\u88ab\u8feb\u66ab\u505c\u5b83\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u9769\u547d\u4e8b\u696d\u3001\u96b1\u85cf\u5176\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u7684\u96c4\u5fc3\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9817\u6709\u8af7\u523a\u610f\u5473\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u62ef\u6551\u4e86\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u653f\u6b0a\u3001\u4e26\u4f7f\u5176\u5bcc\u5f37\u8d77\u4f86\u7684\u6b63\u662f\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\u3002\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u9818\u8896\u5011\u6709\u9078\u64c7\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u897f\u65b9\u9818\u5c0e\u7684\u897f\u767c\u91cc\u4e9e\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e26\u7531\u6b64\u7372\u5f97\u4e86\u8c50\u539a\u56de\u5831\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u4f7f\u547d\u6df1\u85cf\u672a\u6563\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u570b\u529b\u7684\u5d1b\u8d77\u800c\u518d\u5ea6\u5fa9\u6d3b\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u5c0e\u4e2d\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u4e3b\u8981\u6210\u5206\u3002\u65bc\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u4e16\u754c\u547d\u904b\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u5927\u535a\u5f08\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u66f4\u52a0\u5f37\u70c8\u5730\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-indent: 40px;\">\u7d50\u8a9e\u7e3d\u7d50\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u672c\u8cea\uff1a\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u6b21\u512a\u5316\u7684\u5de8\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u570b\u969b\u4e0a\u4ecd\u7136\u9817\u5177\u7af6\u722d\u529b\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u4e0d\u61c8\u8ffd\u6c42\u7684\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\u8207\u7576\u4eca\u4e16\u754c\u79e9\u5e8f\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u5339\u914d\u548c\u4e0d\u76f8\u5bb9\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u65e2\u6df1\u4e14\u5ee3\u3002\u5728\u6982\u8ff0\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u5e7e\u7a2e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u672c\u7d50\u8a9e\u4e5f\u9810\u544a\u4e86\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u7e8c\u7bc7\u2500\u2500\u63a2\u8a0e\u56e0\u61c9\u4e4b\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u6ce8\u91cb<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> \u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u8ecd\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u6578\u5b57\u898bICP 2014\u3001IMF 2014\u3001SIPRI 2015\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u6c11\u610f\u8abf\u67e5\u898bPew 2015\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u4ef2\u88c1\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u898bXi 2016\u548cAllison 2016\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> \u95dc\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u53ca\u5176\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u65b0\u8fd1\u82f1\u6587\u5b78\u8853\u66f8\u7c4d\u5305\u62ec\uff08\u6309\u4f5c\u8005\u5b57\u6bcd\u9806\u5e8f\u6392\u5217\uff09\uff1aCallahan 2013\uff1bChristensen 2015\uff1bChung 2015\uff1bDeng and Wang 2005\uff1bDickson 2016\uff1bFriedberg 2012\uff1bGoldstein 2005\uff1bHung 2015\uff1bKissinger 2011\uff1bLampton 2008\uff1bLieberthal 2005\uff1bMcGregor 2012\uff1bNathan and Scobell 2012\uff1bNaughton 2006\uff1bPillsbury 2015\uff1bRosecrance and Miller 2014\uff1bRingen 2016\uff1bShambaugh 2013\uff1bSchell and Delury 2013\uff1bShirk 2008\uff1bSutter 2012\uff1bWasserstrom 2013\uff1bWestad 2012\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> Baum 2010\uff1bPillsbury 2014\uff1bKennan 1947 and 1954\uff1bShirk 2008\uff1bHachigian 2014\uff1bF.Wang 1998a\uff1bBader 2013\uff1bLampton 2014\uff1bGaltung and Stenslie 2015\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> \u8a73\u7d30\u53c3\u95b1Mann 2007 and 2016\uff1bLampton and Mann 2007\uff1bAsh et al. 2007\uff1bHessler 2006\uff1bLeonard 2008\uff1bHalper 2010\uff1bRosecrance and Miller 2014\uff1bFord 2010\uff1bCallahan 2012 and 2013\uff1bPillsbury 2015\uff1bChristensen 2015\uff1bRingen 2016\uff1bChang 2001\uff1bMattis 2015\uff1bShambaugh 2015a\uff1bKissinger 2014, 4-9<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a> \u5e1d\u570b\uff0c\u6307\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c\u4e2d\u592e\u96c6\u6b0a\u653f\u9ad4\u300d\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u4e00\u7684\u5b98\u50da\u7d71\u6cbb\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff1b\u5b83\u300c\u4ee5\u81ea\u6211\u70ba\u4e2d\u5fc3\u300d\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u653f\u6cbb\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u300d\u88e1\u300c\u7368\u5360\u4e00\u5207\u300d\uff0c\u5f81\u670d\u4e26\u7d71\u6cbb\u6240\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u793e\u6703\u653f\u6cbb\u793e\u5718\u3001\u7fa4\u9ad4\u548c\u7d44\u7e54\uff08Eisenstadt 2010, 21-2\uff1bWesson, 1967, 46-47\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a> Levenson 1965 &amp; 1967\uff1bPines 2012, 11, 22-3\uff1bSmith 2013, 5\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref7\" name=\"_ftn7\">[7]<\/a> Wesson 1967, 21-54\uff1bBang and Kolodziejczyk 2012\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref8\" name=\"_ftn8\">[8]<\/a> Lattimore 1951, 512\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref9\" name=\"_ftn9\">[9]<\/a> \u9577\u671f\u505c\u6eef\u548c\u8d85\u7d1a\u7a69\u5b9a\u6307\u7f3a\u4e4f\u79d1\u5b78\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6c92\u6709\u50cf\u555f\u8499\u904b\u52d5\u548c\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u90a3\u6a23\u7684\u793e\u6703\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u8cea\u7684\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u4eba\u53e3\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9084\u6703\u6709\u6578\u91cf\u4e0a\u7684\u589e\u9577\u3002\u5728\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\uff0c\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u5982\u679c\u6709\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u83c1\u82f1\u7fa4\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u53ef\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u9577\u4e45\uff08Morrow et al 2003\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref10\" name=\"_ftn10\">[10]<\/a> Morgenthau 1948\uff1bWaltz 1979\uff1bGilpin 1981\uff1bWendt 1992 and 1999\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref11\" name=\"_ftn11\">[11]<\/a> Machan 2008, 272-73\uff1bKhatri1 et al. 2006\uff1bKingston 2013\uff1bWademan 2012\uff1bBai et al. 2014\uff1bPei 2014\uff1bUS DOS 2005\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u539f\u6587\u520a\u65bc\u300a\u4e2d\u83ef\u79e9\u5e8f\uff1a\u4e2d\u539f\u3001\u4e16\u754c\u5e1d\u570b\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u529b\u91cf\u7684\u672c\u8cea\u300b\uff08\u53f0\u5317\uff1a\u516b\u65d7\u6587\u5316\uff0c2018\uff09\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u70ba\u7de8\u8f2f\u64ec\u5b9a\u3002 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